NewsChannel 5.com - Nashville, Tennessee - Capitol View Commentary: April 13, 2007

Capitol View Commentary: April 13, 2007

CAPITOL VIEW

By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice President, Dye, Van Mol & Lawrence Public Relations

April 13, 2007

I couldn't help but chuckle the other day when I read the news coverage of the House Agriculture Committee when it "approved" the Governor's tobacco tax increase.

Maybe "approved" is not the most accurate word to use, since the Committee first cut the increase from 40 cents to 20 cents, then proceeded to add additional amendments that repealed portions of the food tax on some staples and took whatever extra money was raised by the tobacco tax and earmarked it instead to pay for the food tax reduction rather than any education improvements (which is what the Governor wants).

On the surface, some might interpret this as a major defeat for the Bredesen administration. To the contrary, I see it as an important strategic victory. The tobacco tax bill is now out of the Agriculture Committee where it faced its greatest challenges in terms of the strength of its opponents, which include both the tobacco lobby and the Republican majority on the committee (the only committee so configured in the democratically-controlled House, by the way).

Now the measure is headed to a much more friendly House Finance Committee where   many of the amendments can and likely will be removed as lawmakers begin to finally inch forward on consideration of the state's operating budget for the next fiscal year which begins in July.

The tobacco tax bill needed to be in place in the Finance Committee to be a part of that debate. Now it can be, even if its companion legislation in the Senate remains bogged down there (where the tobacco lobby is also strong and every committee has a GOP majority).

With both parties now offering their own versions of how to provide some kind of food tax relief (taking it off some necessities like bread, milk and baby food or providing a month-long food tax holiday during December) it is clear some kind of "deal" is in the offing in the next few weeks that will link a food tax reduction of some sort with some kind of tobacco tax increase and the education enhancements the Governor wants.

All that seems to remain is the announcement of the latest estimate (due in May) of how large a surplus in funds the state expects to enjoy this coming year. If it's large enough (and most observers seem to think it will be) a deal will be made allowing some kind of tobacco tax/education bill and some kind of food tax reduction plan to both be approved (although working out the exact details of all that is likely to create some real headaches and partisan controversy in the next few weeks).

I have felt from early in the session, some kind of deal would be struck on all this.

So far, I don't think I'm wrong.

But, even if there is a compromise, don't be surprised to hear the echoes of this fight still reverberating during next year's elections, when both parties are looking for leverage and wedge issues as they battle over control of both houses in the next General Assembly.

THE MAYOR'S RACE GOES TO THE GREENS

I got my first piece of direct mail for the Nashville mayor's race the other day.

I was excited, then surprised to learn the mailing was an invitation to a "Bob Clement for Mayor" golf tournament to held at the Harpeth Hills Golf Course on May 26.

I don't play golf but I have been invited to a lot of golf tournaments over the years, mostly to raise money for charity. I have never been invited to nor heard of a golf tournament to benefit a political campaign.

But it's "Birdies and Bogies for Bob" I guess.

I am curious how those playing in the tournament or supporting it as whole sponsors are counted as political contributors. It's $75 to sponsor a hole and $125 per player ($500 per team) with a limit of 144 players or 36 teams. Does all or any of the money involved to play count towards the $1,000 individual contribution limit? What about those already maxed out to the campaign (I was told they could play for free)? And what about the team prizes for finishing in first, second and third place, which are $600, $500 and $400 gift certificates from Golf Galaxy? How is that considered in the world of campaign finance?

Just asking because I am sure Clement's opponents will be checking it out thoroughly.

Oh, by the way, the Clement golf mailer says if you'd like to "share your Number 1 concern regarding our Metro Government" to send those to Clement for Mayor in care of Melissa Blackburn at P.O. Box 23110, Nashville, TN 37202 or call (615) 298-2911. I guess that's to hold down on those who want to bend Bob's ear right before he tries to sink that crucial 15-foot putt on the 18^th green during the tournament. J

Fore!

Clement has also hired a campaign manager. He is John Ray Clemmons, a former Clement congressional staffer, who has experience with the state Democratic Party as a Political Director, recruiting and assisting candidates for the Tennessee General Assembly. 

Clemmons reportedly will take over the day-to-day operations of the campaign. I suspect that means he will be taking over some of duties of Nashville attorney Larry Woods, who is one of Clement's campaign chairmen and who has filled the role of campaign manager since Clement began his quest for the mayor's office over a year ago.

No, that doesn't make him Larry's caddy. But it's close, because you can be sure as the campaign assesses each challenge it faces (like a particular hole on a golf course) or tries to figure out what is the best way to communicate its message (like selecting what clubs to play), there will be lots of consultation (like a golfer and his caddy) between Woods and Clemmons about what should be done.  

RUN AWAY FROM THE RUNOFF

I told you when the Metro Election Commission approved it a few weeks back that placing the city's runoff elections on September 13 (which this year is Rosh Hashanah, one of the holiest days of the Jewish religious calendar) was a bad idea even if the Metro Legal Department said it had to be done that way by law.

We sure would never hold an election on Easter or Christmas Day.  If the Metro charter says it must be on the second Thursday of September, then it ought to be changed (we seem to be making a lot of changes to the charter these days anyway).

As for this election, maybe we ought to try changing state law the way as was suggested by Gail Kerr in her TENNESSEAN column (4/11). Bravo to Gail and the newspaper for making this a front page story and getting the Election Commission moving toward trying to correct this matter. I am not sure state law always overrides Metro, but it's worth looking at if the Election Commission finds itself unable or unwilling to change its previous decision.

If we are a city that doesn't want to send the wrong message by making English the first or only language used in our local government, we ought to write our election laws to give some flexibility in cases like this. Sure, there is always the option to vote early or use an absentee ballot. But doing it that way creates two classes of voters and candidates and creates the wrong image about Nashville. It particularly places a difficult Election Day burden on local Jewish candidates and campaign workers who will have to choose between their religious observances and their race for office in a way that is really unfair.

MORE ON THE MONEY

All the major mayoral candidates have reported their 1^st quarter finances.

And upon further review (particularly two excellent analysis articles on the monies raised done by THE CITY PAPER and NASHVILLE POST), it appears it was Karl Dean and not front runner Bob Clement who raised the most money the last 90 days for the August election.

The difference is that some of Clement's total ($24,000) is actually money that can only be spent in the runoff whenever it is held in September (a fact not mentioned in the Clement campaign news release outlining their campaign finance report).

This is the first financial report where Clement has not been the undisputed leader. While he is still far ahead in terms of total dollars raised and money in the bank, this change is sure to raise questions about whether the Clement campaign is running out of steam in its money raising efforts. There will be similar questions arising from the significant dollars now coming into the Clement campaign from sources outside Nashville. 

Now, don't misunderstand, there is nothing wrong or bad about any of this. All the money raised seems completely proper and will no doubt be put to good use in the Clement campaign (because there will be a runoff). But it does appear there is now at least a small chink in the armor of the Clement campaign machine that has been so strong in its money-raising efforts to this point.

But can any of the other candidates catch up enough with Clement money-wise to be able to compete, especially with the TV, radio and direct mail ad campaign wars just a few months away? Karl Dean would seem to be the most likely candidate to do so, given the rate at which he is raising money since he joined the race as the final candidate late last year.

But he is still so far behind in total dollars and money in the bank he will have to again seriously tap his own large wallet if he is going to make up enough of that money difference.        

For Buck Dozier, while he has still raised the second highest amount of money overall ($400,00 from over 1,000 contributors) and has the second largest war chest on hand ($210,000) there has to be some concern that his fund raising this past 90 days has continued to slip from previous  quarters (just $70,000 this period).

In an apparent effort to reassure supporters, a Dozier news release announcing the finance report made it clear that the campaign has raised another $12,000 in just the last few days. Dozier officials say their campaign continues to identify and be approached by new individuals and groups looking to support him. If this is true, some of the campaign contributions they should generate need to show up in the next quarterly report due in July if Dozier hopes to continue to be competitive as the race enters its final months.

On the positive side, I would say Dozier has probably already spent some of the significant dollars needed to produce his TV spots (those reality type videos he keeps sending out in e-mails can fairly easily be made into :60 and :30 second spots). The question is will Dozier have enough money to buy and sustain a TV, radio and/or direct mail campaign to get out his message? Those blast e-mails with video links or postings on YouTube are not going to be enough to get the job done, at least not in this campaign cycle.

Based on remaining money in the bank today, Dozier probably is better positioned right now than any candidate other than Clement to do his media campaign, but he is down not quite 3 to 1 in cash on hand compared to Clement. Again Karl Dean can likely get there too, but he will probably have to write more personal checks to his campaign and self-financing always raises its own set of questions and controversies.

Meantime all the candidates have come out for changing the September 13 runoff election date, but give Dozier credit for taking advantage of the news cycle by being the first mayoral candidate to speak out, followed by Clement (the next day) and now all the candidates (Gentry, Dean and Briley) have joined in as they spoke at an election forum held (appropriately) at the Gordon Jewish Community Center.   

I also notice from Dozier's most recent e-mail video that he is going a little more directly against Mayor Bill Purcell on the issue of public safety. Saying we need to hire and keep more police officers on the street, Dozier doesn't mention the mayor's name, but there is little doubt who he is talking about when he tells some senior citizens, "You know we've built all these sidewalks and greenways. But what good are they, if people don't feel safe walking them?" That's about the strongest criticism I've heard from any candidate so far about the present administration.  

Howard Gentry continues to lag behind all the candidates in fundraising. He is once again last in money raised this quarter ($55,230), last in total funds raised ($210,823) and, most importantly last in money in the bank ($87,004). The candidate continues to express delight in how his campaign is going and points out he is paying all his bills and still has money left over (with no outside loans or personal contributions). All that's true, even with the campaign adding outside Washington consultants and new campaign staff in recent weeks

The question is, can the Gentry campaign find the major dollars it will need to begin the paid media campaign he must have to compete with his opponents beginning in the next month or two? It may be that his strong support in the black community will be enough to keep him in the race with a chance to make the September runoff. But even with that, he will need to do something in the paid media (TV, radio and direct mail)  to get that voter bloc to turn out in numbers that will make a difference for him. $87,000 in the bank is just not enough to do that job, so fund raising remains a critical, so far unmet, need for the Gentry campaign and must be more successful in the weeks to come if he has any chance August 2 or beyond.

THE C WORD

If Fred Thompson has any aspirations to run for President, he sure did the right thing in disclosing that he has cancer.

It might have been easy for Thompson to have neglected to bring up the subject, especially since his diagnosis with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma was over two and half years ago and it hasn't made him sick. He says he is in remission now and the type of cancer he has is "very treatable with drugs" with "no debilitating side effects" or impact on his life expectancy or quality of life if the disease does reoccur. And his doctors concur.

So why bring it up at all?   

Well some folks (including friends and would-be supporters) were aware of the situation. One way or another it would have eventually, probably inadvertently, leaked out. When that happened, the failure of Thompson personally or his campaign (if he was by then a candidate) to have fully disclosed the condition earlier would likely have set off a media and public firestorm that would have been difficult to handle.

Doing it now allows Thompson to better control the message (or at least the first round of stories about it) and shape the debate and news stories it is generating.

Thompson also likely benefits from cancer being so prominent in our national political news these days (Elizabeth Edwards and Tony Snow come to mind). He is not the only one having to deal with this disease and try and move forward successfully with his life. But unlike Mrs. Edwards or Tony Snow, Thompson is (at least potentially) the candidate, not a spouse or a press secretary, so the amount of media scrutiny of his appearance and health will be much greater than usual if Thompson ever does get out on the campaign trail. 

According to an Associated Press story by Nedra Pickler (4/11) we have had several candidates for President who were cancer survivors (Paul Tsongas, John McCain, John Kerry, Bob Dole and this year Rudy Giuliani). But none of them so far have been elected President. Again, as so often has happened in Campaign 2008, are we on the brink of moving into new political territory? A cancer survivor in the White House

So is the Thompson cancer disclosure a sign that he is getting more and more serious about a run for the Presidency, even to the point of carefully orchestrating this announcement (exclusive FOX News interview) to get this ‘bad news" out of the way and handled before he announces? Could be. Why else would Fred Thompson, who values his privacy as much or more than any of us, make such a revelation?

I think as much as anything that has happened since this Thompson for President boomlet began, this is the clearest signal that the former Senator is really looking hard at a race for the White House. It may not be sign of "a fire in the belly" but at least he knows that if you are really serious about running for this nation's highest office, you better be ready to "bare your soul" completely,  including your personal life and especially your health history.   

By the way, this potential Thompson presidential candidacy is attracting media attention from around the world. I just did an interview on that topic with Sarah Baxter, the Washington Bureau Chief for the SUNDAY TIMES OF LONDON. She has been in Nashville working on her story which is set to run this weekend (Sunday April 15) across the pond and probably on THE LONDON TIMES website if you want to check it out.  

BACK TO WORK?

Well the President and the Congress are back at work in Washington.

Can't you tell?

Maybe not, unless you like to keep up with ongoing controversies and scandals, constitutional challenges and gridlock government. There doesn't seem to be much else going on.

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales has a major appearance (Tuesday April 17) before a congressional committee to once again try to explain the reasoning behind the mid-term firing of a number of Republican-appointed U.S. Attorneys across the country. This is far from his first attempt at this, and if he doesn't come up with a more plausible explanation in his testimony this time, he may be joining a number of his former assistants who have resigned or left the Justice Department since this scandal broke.

The Attorney General's challenge is not getting any easier, especially with the ongoing revelations about thousands, maybe millions, of lost or missing e-mails, some of which might be relevant to the case (shades of Watergate). This will just further increase the escalating conflict between Congress's right and duty to perform its oversight function and the President's right to executive privilege concerning his staff and papers.

As for the Democrats controlling both houses of Congress, after their first 100 days they still haven't passed into law any of their key agenda items and they keep stacking up more things on their agenda that they know the White House won't buy into. The latest is another attempt to remove the government ban on embryonic stem cell research. This is the only bill that the President has vetoed in his entire 6+ years in office when similar legislation was approved in both houses last year. Look for another veto on this latest version and look for it to be sustained (as it was last year) since the majority of lawmakers in favor of this change (including Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander) is not quite large enough to override the President's disapproval.

And so it goes...including the impasse between Democratic lawmakers and the White House over including a time line or conditions to withdraw our troops from Iraq. It's all tied to an emergency appropriations bill to fund the war there and elsewhere in the Mideast. Again the Democrats have made their point, but they don't have the votes to override a presidential veto and eventually they have to approve some kind of war appropriation bill or risk being labeled as non-supportive of our troops.

Things don't look a whole lot better for the Bush administration on this issue with a  terrorist bombing occurring where the Iraqi Parliament meets inside in the vaunted fortified Green Zone in Baghdad and another bomb taking out a major bridge in that city. To add to the ongoing misery of it all, the Defense Department is announcing that Army units will be forced to serve longer tours of duty in the war zone (15 months now instead of a year) because our forces are stretched so thin. If all this is an example of how the "troop surge" is working in Iraq (along with Senator McCain's explanation of how he felt so safe when he toured Iraq recently; of course he had lots of troops guarding him) somebody may not be asking the right questions on this topic. Does anybody really want to be War Czar of this?

I guess there is a chance the Democrats and the President could come together on one issue...comprehensive immigration reform. But the latest plans being talked about in the halls of Congress and which seem to have the President's support (based on comments he made during a recent trip to the border) still look too much like amnesty for current illegals for many Republicans and some Democrats to support. Groups like the Eagle Forum are rallying their troops to lobby their Senators and House members to reject this latest immigration proposal, leaving us again with gridlock.

Prescription drug changes are next up for the Senate, including the effort to allow Medicare to negotiate prices. That could be a veto situation too. There's also an energy bill in the wings that will surely cause lots of debate, but may still not result in any approved legislation down the road.

Beginning to see a pattern here?

And if it's this tough now to get anything done, what will it be like next year when the 2008 elections even closer?

One last note: I commend to all of you the op-ed piece in the April 13 edition of the WALL STREET JOURNAL written by Nashville Congressman Jim Cooper. It is a devastating and spot-on accurate critique of what is wrong in Washington these days, especially in our fiscal affairs (and all thanks to the Incumbent Party, says Cooper, which is not who or what you might think it is). Cooper's article is a must read.

INSIDE POLITICS

A true living legend is my guest on INSIDE POLITICS this weekend. He is Chairman Emeritus of THE TENNESSEAN and former USA TODAY editor John Seigenthaler.

We talk about many of the topics we've covered in this column from the national scene to Tennessee's Capitol Hill and the Nashville mayor's race. I think you will find his comments about the 2008 Presidential race most intriguing, especially the possible candidacies of Fred Thompson and Al Gore (note: the interview was done prior to Thompson's cancer disclosure).    

INSIDE POLITICS airs each weekend on NewsChannel5 Plus Comcast Channel 50. Because of the ongoing coverage of the Mary Winkler murder trial, we won't be on for our usual Friday evening airing at 7:00 PM (April 13). Our Saturday time (April 14) at 5:30 PM is also a bit iffy. But on Sunday (April 15) you can watch INSIDE POLITICS three different times at 5:00 AM, 12:30 PM and 8:30 PM. For those of you out of town or who are not on the Comcast system, you can find excerpts of the show here on the NewsChannel5 web site (www.newschannel5.com).

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NewsChannel 5 thanks Pat Nolan for providing this column every week. Mr. Nolan's commentary reflects his own opinions, not those of the NewsChannel 5 Network.

Comments about Capitol View should be sent to Pat Nolan directly via email at pat.nolan@dvl.com