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National Hurricane Center addresses speculation on major tropical system hitting US

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Posted at 9:32 AM, Sep 22, 2022

The National Hurricane Center said it is monitoring a band of thunderstorms in the Caribbean Sea for possible tropical development.

On Thursday, the NHC said the system has a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday and a 90% of becoming one by early next week.

The NHC said the storm is moving into an area more conducive for development. The system is off the coast of Venezuela. It is expected to most to the northwest.

There are forecast models showing the storm entering the Gulf of Mexico next week. The models show a potential hurricane could hit the US Gulf Coast.

The National Hurricane Center, however, generally only issues forecasts up to five days out. Forecasts beyond five days, the National Hurricane Center, can be unreliable.

Acting NHC Director Jamie Rhome said on Thursday that forecasting potential impacts were too early.

"The predictability of systems that haven't formed yet is very, very low," Rhome said. "I want to emphasize that because we can't say too much about potential impacts to the Gulf of Mexico. Until this system actually forms, becomes a well-defined named system, the ability of models, the ability of humans to predict where it is going to go is really, really low."