NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — A lot of us are glued to our phones right now, refreshing weather apps and group chats as Middle Tennessee prepares for its first significant winter storm of the season. But while forecasts are everywhere, not all of them are created equal.
I wanted to show you what really goes into a weather forecast—and why tiny details can make a big difference.
"Snow, 80% chance on Saturday. Let's go," said Nashville resident Dan Chappell.
As winter weather moves in, forecasts are everywhere—phones, feeds, even family chats.
"Either from my wife or from my phone right here. I just pull it up, and whatever it says, I go by," Chappell said.
In the South, winter storms come with one certainty—uncertainty.
"People are thinking we're going to get 20 inches of snow. That's what my wife originally said. And she was like, oh my gosh, this could be 20 inches. And I'm like, there's no way," Chappell said.
This week's system, from Texas to the Carolinas, has the rare Southern combo—cold air and moisture.
"Three inches, 20 inches, two feet," said another Nashville resident, Davina Kraeger.
Temps will drop, and yes—snow is in the mix.
"I'll believe it when I see it. Tennessee weather is like that," Kraeger said.
Where you get your forecast matters.
"I trust the Nashville Severe Weather X, I think they're called. That's who I usually go to," Kraeger said.
But meteorologists add what phones can't—context.
"I don't think people realize how much math is involved. I have a math minor. You're doing a lot of physics. You're doing a lot of calculus, a lot of dynamics," said Meteorologist Brittany Rainey.
A forecast is never fixed—it's fluid.
"So it's constantly changing," Rainey said.
Even small shifts high above can mean big changes on the ground. That's why meteorologists compare multiple models instead of relying on one.
"Now, with your cell phone, you are getting one model at one specific time. There is no human in there interpreting that data for you," Rainey said.
Meteorologist Brittany Rainey and the Storm 5 team break it down in real time.
"You need that human context to understand those temperature changes and the wind shifts in all of those details to actually get an accurate forecast," Rainey said.
With highs staying below freezing, ice and snow could linger—affecting travel and power.
"You want that local meteorologist giving you that heads up so you can be prepared and you can adjust your plans," Rainey said.
An impactful winter storm is coming.
"It's just how much are we going to get?" Rainey said.
It was a year ago, on January 10th, that the Nashville area saw any snow, but nothing record-breaking.
The Storm 5 Weather team says Nashville last saw some heavy and big snowfall, and recently it was January 16-17, 2016, with 8 inches, and January 14-15, 2024, with 7.6 inches.
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