CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice-President, DVL Seigenthaler Public Relations, a Finn Partners Company
August 14, 2015
THE FIRST FULL WEEK; INSIDE POLITICS; 16 YEARS LATER; THE ANSWER IS STILL NO; GET THOSE SHOTS
THE FIRST FULL WEEK
On the surface it might appear the first full week of Nashville’s mayoral runoff campaign was pretty unexciting, at least the first few days. But then the race exploded on Thursday (August 13) with the Megan Barry and David Fox campaigns beginning their first new TV ads, and Barry got a major endorsement.
Former Tennessee Governor (2003-2011) and former Nashville Mayor (1991-1999) Phil Bredesen has endorsed the Metro Councilmember At Large. The backing was announced at a news conference conducted at one of Bredesen’s signature achievements as mayor, the Bridgestone Area.
In a news release Bredesen said: “As mayor I learned the only way to build a coalition is to push partisan politics aside, and Megan Barry can do that. I’m endorsing Megan Barry because I believe she will continue the momentum of our city, continue moving Nashville forward in a way that invests in our future while remaining fiscally responsible.”
Phil Bredesen remains very popular and admired in Nashville so his comments are strong stuff indeed, especially in the wake of charges by Barry’s opponent David Fox that Barry is a far left liberal who is out of touch with the rest of Nashville. Bredesen is also the kind of moderate Democrat that Fox needs to win in Blue (Democratic) Davidson County.
Endorsements obviously can be quite positive and I think this one will be exactly that, even though as Governor, Mr. Bredesen had a few legislative races in which he endorsed that turned out the other way. This endorsement though seems to be more of a home game for him on friendly turf, so that should help Barry. She was already the favorite in this mayoral runoff. The Bredesen endorsement and a few other developments this week just makes her an even stronger one.
Even her opponent Fox had nice things to say after the Bredesen announcement: “Who doesn’t love Phil Bredesen? That’s a great endorsement. I know Phil Bredesen and Megan Barry have been friends a long time, so I get that. I think we all aspire to be the kind of mayor he was. The good news is that I’m not running against Phil Bredesen. I’m running against Megan Barry.”
Indeed the election is still four weeks away (September 10). No votes have been cast yet and won’t be until Early Voting begins next Friday (August 21). So this is no time for Barry supporters to get complacent or begin practicing their victory dance.
By the way Barry got another endorsement this week (Friday) from the Women in Numbers organization. WIN seeks to “support qualified women to be elected to public office.” The group supported Linda Eskind Rebrovick in the August election.
Maybe early on this week the runoff race looked slow because it’s been like an iceberg. You don’t see a lot going on above the surface, but there’s been plenty happening below the water line (or behind the scenes).
For example I am sure both the Megan Barry and David Fox campaigns have been busy raising money. They couldn’t seek runoff funds until they actually made the contest. And while seeking contributions is in many ways easier to do this “second time around”, you’ve still got to spend considerable staff, volunteer and candidate time to do that.
And as the funds come in, it’s also time to draft, edit and produce new campaign TV ads. You want to be done and be on the air well before next Friday when Early Voting starts. Indeed Megan Barry had her first ad done, placed bought and running by Thursday of this week.
You can see it here.
The ad addresses the key issues and themes Barry has stressed since she got into the race. It also tries to play off the excitement of an election night headquarters with a winning candidate. The spot repeats (right out of the candidate’s victory speech) her pledge to “earn” voters’ support and their votes. Not only is that likely a good strategy to approach supporters from the losing mayoral campaigns to join her side, it’s also a little shot at Fox.
She doesn’t say it directly, but Barry repeatedly saying her plan is to “earn” votes can be seen as a knock on how Fox has made his money (as a hedge fund operator) and at the out of state Super PAC (funded by Fox’s brother) that has been backing Fox’s campaign to the tune of at least $500,000.
I am told the Barry TV buy for its first week (on both broadcast and cable) is about $100,000 or 80 points which means it should be quite visible to viewers. You can bet she’ll be spending more and airing additional ads between now and runoff Election Day. Just thinking out loud: Is a Phil Bredesen endorsement TV ad now in the works?
Not surprisingly, the Fox campaign got his first TV ad up on the same day as Barry. He reportedly is spending at the same $100,000 level as Barry, so his spot will be quite visible too.
It’s a positive ad. In fact, it has strictly a “Thank You” message which you can see here.
Maybe I am seeing or hearing things that aren’t really there. But you’ll notice the Fox ad introduces his entire family, even the campaign mascot. It thanks the voters for placing him in the runoff (although that is not mentioned directly). And it thanks them for “protecting the Nashville Way.”
On one level, if you didn’t know better, you might interpret the spot as thanking voters for already electing Fox mayor, although as the ad (and the candidate’s wife Carrington Fox) points out, “there is still more work to do.” Then the ad concludes by showing Fox supporters gathering outside the Fox home to cheer him on as he embraces some of them in welcome and celebration.
So what is it I see? Well, the Barry campaign in its TV ads have never shown her family, her husband (Bruce, a Vanderbilt professor) or her college age son on the air. Is that a candidate’s choice? Sure it is, some running for office showcase their families. Other don’t.
Is that a big deal? I don’t think so. But some might. I wonder if the Fox campaign spent all that time and money to produce and air their spot just to be nice and show one big happy family? Based on some Facebook postings I am seeing, is the contrast in showcasing families in the Fox ad completely by accident?
In his first new ad, Fox, for now, did not continue his Election Night charges that Barry is too far left (liberal) for Nashville and that she is more concerned with national progressive causes such as abortion and same sex marriage than about the day to day issues of being mayor of a major city. But I’ll bet that message will be back somewhere soon.
In fact it emerged again in comments made by Fox’s campaign manager in THE TENNESSEAN’s article (August 13) about his candidate’s first ad . The ad is entitled “Thank You” while Barry’s first spot is entitled “Superior” which Fox campaign manager Chris Turner sees as a real contrast. “I think the differences in the titles of the ads tells you everything you need to know as a voter about the candidates’ differences. Barry is just one of those way, way out there leftists who think if you don’t agree with them 100%, you must be an idiot; hence, the Superior (ad name). David is just the opposite.”
Arguing over TV ad titles (which are not shown on the air although I have seen them on Facebook when the spot are posted)? Yeah, I guess it is going to get a little contentious in this contest, huh?
Another area where a lot of time and effort is being committed by the mayoral campaigns is seeking support from the opposing candidates who they defeated to make the runoff. So far none of the five candidates have issued an endorsement (and they may not). But some of those who were top lieutenants in their unsuccessful campaigns are signing up.
The Barry camp is particularly showing some pickup in support from the Bill Freeman team. Metro Councilman At Large Jerry Maynard, who was a paid Freeman staffer, says he says he will now strongly support Barry, his Council colleague. Maynard’s father is also minister at the Cathedral of Praise Church, one of the largest and most actively voting precincts in the city. Barry’s vote was her weakest in the African American community, so Maynard’s support will be helpful along with other endorsements from Freeman supporters such as the Reverend Enoch Fuzz and State Senator Brenda Gilmore, who was Freeman’s finance chair. State Representative Sherry Jones, another major Freeman supporter has also announced her backing for Barry via a Facebook posting on Wednesday. It seems Facebook and social media is the medium of choice to announce endorsement decisions these days.
I expect there will be more leaders in the Freeman Team and in black community signing up for Barry. But the real question remains, will that support turn into votes on September 10? The minority turnout in August was not that large. If that community doesn’t turn out in some considerable numbers, David Fox with his strong support in other parts of town might still gain an edge.
Barry is not just focusing on recruiting from the leadership of other campaigns. She has issued what appears to be a series of Open Letters to the supporters of unsuccessful mayoral candidates (Freeman, Jeremy Kane and Howard Gentry so far). All three Open Letters are education and/or youth oriented. For the Freeman supporters Barry makes it clear she is favor of Freeman’s strong push for community
schools, while to Kane voters, Barry says she, like Kane, is committed to ensuring all students in Metro Schools are ready for college and for life after graduation. Finally for Gentry voters, Barry says she joins the Criminal Court Clerk in a concern about youth violence including helping to convene a youth violence summit for Nashville if she is elected mayor.
Both candidates took some shots at each other on the education issue during recent interviews with THE TENNESSEAN (August 13). The article says “Barry accused Fox of wanting to convert Nashville’s public education system into a system of privately run charter schools (like New Orleans). She also criticized Fox’s time as Chairman of the Metro School Board saying during the search for a new School Director in 2009 “David’s approach was not to engage the public…He did not want input from the community on who should be that next superintendent.” That new Director turned out to be Jesse Register who just retired and Metro is about to conduct another such search perhaps making Barry’s issue more current.
Fox of course dismisses those charges by Barry. He says he is proud of his tenure on the School Board especially since it occurred at a time when the system faced a takeover by the state which was avoided. As for Barry, Fox charges she is “just not there. She doesn’t have in my view a really firm understanding of why schools aren’t successful and I don’t think she has given any indication she understands the critical the role of the mayor is in injecting urgency so that all kids have a great education.” Then he added that he see nothing to indicate Barry is “prepared to engage as muscularly” as a mayor should to keep the system from falling apart.
Education seems to be a real flash point between these candidates that will likely continue to flare up throughout the race.
Getting back to Barry’s Open Letters, they have been sent out by her campaign through press releases and have generated a few new stories. The Letters have also been a part of several social media postings I’ve seen. But other than that, and posting the letters (I assume) on her campaign web site, I am not sure how she gets these messages directly in the hands of voters. Maybe what the campaign is doing will be enough. The Open Letters (you can expect two more to be released for Bone and Rebrovick supporters) do appear to be a positive outreach where Barry can once again say nice things about her former opponents and try to show she has an interest in pursuing some of their top issues. But Barry’s TV ad doesn’t specifically mention any of these issues as ones she plans to continue “to fight for.” So combine that with her Open Letters, is she sending mixed signals?
There are also other pending group endorsements that could be announced at any time. That includes all of the Metro employee unions (Police, Fire, Teachers, Service Workers). All endorsed Freeman in August and all are now expected to endorse Barry (the teachers’ union has already tweeted some hints it will be for Barry). . Theses endorsements could certainly help Barry’s runoff effort but only if they translate into votes at the polls. City workers aren’t required to live in Davidson County and those who don’t live in Nashville can’t vote in this election no matter who the unions support. You can also bet Fox will try and make an issue about any union support Barry receives saying it will make her beholden to them to give future raises, benefits and pension increases at a time when Metro already faces a multi-billion dollar debt in that part of the city’s long term budget.
Another major endorsement that came out this week (Wednesday, August 12) is from the Nashville Business Coalition, a group affiliated with the Nashville Area Chamber of Commerce. Given Fox’s more
conservative background you might think business support would come to him. The Business Coalition did not support anyone in the August election and they interviewed both runoff candidates again this week (for the third time and for a total of over 4 hours combined).
It was rumored early in the week that the Coalition might endorse both candidates for the September 10 runoff. And that’s exactly what the group did, saying in a news release: “The Coalition believes that Nashville would be well served with either candidate as our next mayor.”
I think the Business Coalition’s decision will surprise several in the community and it will get panned by others for this “stance” (or lack thereof) in the mayor’s race. . Tactically I see it as a victory for Barry. Much like the Bredesen endorsement, it is now a bit harder for David Fox to say convincingly that Megan Barry is too liberal while the Business Coalition (the voice of business) says they are both qualified to be mayor.
Here’s a footnote about the Business Coalition co-endorsement. Last summer the Coalition held one of the first of many mayoral forums for the candidates. I moderated it. Only 5 candidates were in the race at that time. Bill Freeman was in the audience that day and Howard Gentry did not announce his candidacy until this past winter. Megan Barry declined to attend because the forum was a ticketed event. That snub was interpreted by several media observers as a sign that Barry didn’t want to help the Coalition to raise monies at the forum that might wind up going to a future opponent either this summer or in the runoff.
Turns out that is not exactly what happened at all, although it is not known how much money the Business Coalition might be contributing to either mayoral candidate. Life and politics can turn out differently than you might predict sometimes.
Other than releasing its TV spot, the Fox campaign seemed to be a bit quieter than Barry this week. The biggest story in the news that somewhat touched the candidate was a pre-election gaffe committed by the out of state Super PAC supporting him. Citizens PAC it’s called, and it’s being funded in large part by David Fox’s brother (a $500,000 contribution).
In the final days before the August vote, the Super PAC sent out a rather official-looking card to voters in some precincts that urged them to be sure and vote. No problem there, but the cards sent to voters in at least one precinct had the wrong address for that location. It said the Boy Scouts of America offices are on West End Avenue. It’s on Hillsboro Road. That error immediately raised suspicions among some who talked to me that a voter suppression effort might be afoot (Fox carried the Boy Scouts box). But the Super PAC says no, it was just a clerical mistake made by one of its vendors concerning that particular voting place. The group also added if voters were confused they could check the Election Commission’s website link also listed on their card to check for the right location.
The Citizen Super PAC generated more controversy late in week (Friday) when the Tennessee Citizens Action group announced it has filed a complaint with the Davidson County District Attorney regarding possible campaign finance law violations involved the PAC and the Fox campaign. More specifically Citizens Action is questioning (based on media reports) whether the two groups coordinated efforts which would be a violation of a number of laws and could result, if convicted, in civil and criminal penalties. This is actually the second case coming to the D.A.’s office out of the mayor’s race. Earlier, Fox
complained about an unidentified robo-call effort against him that might violate the law. The D.A. office says the robo call matter is being investigated.
Fox did get a boost on Wednesday (August 12) when THE NASHVILLE BUSINESS JOURNAL released its latest Business Pulse readers’ poll. In a non-scientific survey (you could vote early and often), more than 4,000 on-line responses were tallied. 56% support Fox, 44% Barry. The paper says it represents “a snapshot of what readers are thinking. “
THE NBJ also reported in its earlier Business Pulse mayoral poll (July) that Bill Freeman (who finished third in August) received 42% support from its respondents then, while Barry had 28% and Fox just 8%.
There continues to be lots of speculation about Freeman’s unexpected poor showing. And then there is this excellent analysis of the race by THE TENNESSEAN’s Joey Garrison.
As a candidate you don’t get any extra credit or brownie points for winning precincts. You only win with total votes, no matter in what part of town they are cast. Since the days of Fate Thomas, nobody wins elections in Nashville north and east of the river. They are won south and especially west of the Cumberland, because that’s where the votes are.
I didn’t get the voting-place by voting-place breakdown of the August Metro election until last weekend. And I haven’t found it anywhere on line to be able to link it here. Also to not just repeat what’s already been reported, Joey Garrison again has an excellent overview of how the vote came down the way it did for Barry and Fox.
I know I have a lot of political junkies who read this column (thank you). Here’s a summary of all the Metro’s returns including the Council races. There is also a breakdown of how the early vote and day-of voting broke out in the mayor’s race.
The breakout of the mayoral vote shows one obvious, but puzzling reason why Bill Freeman didn’t make the runoff. He didn’t get his supporters to the polls for Early Voting. That meant come Election Day, Freeman was between about 2,000 to 1,500 votes behind Barry and Fox. It was a deficit he couldn’t make up even though he got the most votes on Election Day itself.
What’s puzzling is that usually early voting failures occur due to lack of resources. Obviously that should not have been the case here. Also since Early Voting goes on for nearly two weeks you would have thought the Freeman Team would have realized they had a problem and tried to rectify it.
By the way in terms of who spent the most (or the least) money per vote, here’s an analysis done by THE NASHVILLE SCENE’s PITH IN THE WIND blog site. It might surprise you in terms who really shelled out the most money per vote. It’s not Freeman.
By the way as the runoff race continues to show some distinct Democrat-Republican overtones (especially for a contest where candidates run without a party label), the local Democratic Party here in Davidson County has sent an e-mail seeking to raise a little money.
Under the headline banner, RUNOFF THE REPUBLICANS the e-mail says: “Republicans are trying to take over the Mayor’s office and Metro Council. Multiple races this year feature a solid progressive versus a tea party extremist The Davidson County Democratic Party will not remain idle or sit on the sidelines. We are committing serious resources to elect Democrats and turn out Democratic voters on election day.”
INSIDE POLITICS
This week on INSIDE POLITICS we take a little break from the Metro Elections and look at perhaps a different kind of politics. I am referring to the upcoming September visit to the United States by Pope Francis, the world leader of the Roman Catholic Church.
My guests are Tony Spence, the Editor in Chief of the national Catholic News Service and Rick Musacchio, Editor of local TENNESSEE REGISTER newspaper and the Communications Director for the Catholic Diocese of Nashville.
This Papal visit is going to dominate the national news next month and you can watch our interview to get up to speed on what is going to happen as well as the issues and topics that will likely be in the headlines.
INSIDE POLITICS can be seen several times each weekend on NEWSCHANNEL5 PLUS. Those times include 7:00 p.m. Friday; 5:00 a.m. & 5:30 p.m., Saturday; and 5:00 a.m. & 12:30 p.m. on Sunday. THE PLUS is on Comcast Cable channel 250, Charter Cable channel 182 (note new channel) and on NEWSCHANNEL5’s over-the-air digital channel 5.2. Again for those who can’t see the show locally or are from out of town, you can watch it with live streaming video on NEWSCHANNEL5.com.
16 YEARS LATER
There’s been a bit of a media boomlet in recent days about Tennessee’s Al Gore running for President again in 2016. That would 16 years after he lost his bid to the White House because of hanging chads in Florida and his campaign’s failure to carry his home state.
There are also now media stories downplaying any Gore candidacy and I suspect there are right. I think the real ongoing story here is all this speculation about Gore or Vice President Joe Biden are really manifestations of the growing worry among Democrats that their all but anointed 2016 Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton may not be able to survive the growing controversy over her e-mail use while Secretary of State and other issues surrounding her foundation, and other controversies.
THE ANSWER IS STILL NO
While Governor Bill Haslam continues his statewide tour having a conversation with citizens (voters) about Tennessee’s current and future transportation needs, Republican state lawmakers keep coming up with new ways to tell him “thanks, but no thanks” if that means an increase in the gas tax.
Murfreesboro State Senator Jim Tracy this week (August 10) sent out a news release through the Senate Republican Caucus saying that as Chairman of the Senate Transportation Committee, he will seek to “repay” the money “raided” out of the state’s highway fund some years back by Governors Don Sundquist and Phil Bredesen. That was when the highway fund had enough funds to “loan” the state some of its money when the overall state budget and general fund was short and other revenues were tight.
The call by Tracy seems to dovetail with what House Speaker Beth Harwell said a few weeks back. She said any surplus money the state has this from the just-concluded fiscal year (and revenues are now up) should be spent to shore up the state’s highway road construction and maintenance efforts. I guess that’s also “repaying” the highway fund in a way.
You’ll notice neither of these prominent leaders in the Republican Super Majority said a word about gas taxes. And they won’t. So is it an idea dead on the Hill for the upcoming 2016 session months before lawmakers convene? That could be although Lt. Governor Ron Ramsey in recent comments (TENNESSEAN August 14) seems open to the Governor presenting a comprehensive transportation plan and Ramsey believes doing something with the gas tax will have to be addressed “sooner rather later.”
The Governor says the same thing although at this point even he is not saying he will offer a bill to increase the gas tax this coming year (after all , 2016 is a re-election year for legislators). Mr. Haslam is also expressing frustration that lawmakers are eager to promote the roads and transportation needs in their districts but go rather silent when it comes to talking about how to pay for those improvements. Still Mr. Haslam says he will a comprehensive transportation plan a hallmark effort of his second term.
But remember the conservative Americans for Prosperity (Koch Brothers) group is mounting its own statewide “ant-gas tax increase “road tour. Given that kind of political pressure, I guess it’s hard to expect our legislators (especially the Republican ones) to react any other way than to be timid about increasing any tax.
GET THOSE SHOTS
Being in a Metro Schools’ 7th grade classroom could be quite interesting come Monday… the classroom could be kind of empty. It is reported 60% of local public schools 7th graders either don’t have their required shots (state law) or haven’t turned in the required paperwork. According to THE TENNESSEAN (August 13) that’s 2,939 out of 4,972th graders who might get sent home next week if they can’t prove they’ve had their shots.
It’s not a new problem Metro officials say, but it’s the worst ever situation the system has ever faced (usually it’s more like 40% who haven’t complied). The shots are boosters for tetanus-diphtheria and pertussis and a second shot of the chicken pox vaccine.
Sounds like a lot of pediatricians could working be overtime this weekend as could Metro’s health clinics who I understand are proving the shots free of charge for families without insurance. As for the kids, who wants shots? And perhaps in their minds if the worst thing that happens is they get kicked out of class a few days, well what’s so bad about that?
Of course that’s the totally wrong way to think even if you’re in 7th grade. The real question is, what are these parents thinking? Metro says they warn parents at the end of their child’s sixth grade year they need these immunizations and they send them follow up e-mails, phone calls even a letter reminding them over the summer. And still no shots?
