CAPITOL VIEW
By Pat Nolan, Senior Vice President, DVL Seigenthaler Public Relations, a Finn Partners Company
October 6, 2017
THE RACES BEGIN TO CRYSTALIZE; HASLAM SAYS NO; BLACKBURN JUMPS IN; THE DEMOCRATS; THE DOWN TICKET IMPACT; INSIDE POLITICS WEIGHS IN; ONE MORE TIME; NASHVILLE MOVES TO BE SOCCER CITY; REPEATING ITSELF; CORKER NOW SPEAKING MORE FREELY;
THE RACES BEGIN TO CRYSTALIZE
After about a week of “thinking and praying” about it, the top would-be candidates to succeed retiring Tennessee U.S. Senator Bob Corker, made up their minds. Their decisions all came down within an hour or so on Thursday morning. The moves established a clear front runner for the Senate seat and it had an impact on at least one other race further down the ballot.
HASLAM SAYS NO
He likely would have been at least a co-frontrunner to capture the Republican senatorial nomination. But Governor Bill Haslam cited largely personal reasons for why he is not running in 2018.
In a statement from his office Thursday morning, Governor Haslam said:
“While Crissy and I will always be grateful for all of the encouragement and support to run for the United States Senate, I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for Senate in 2018. The primary reason is that I want to remain completely focused on my job as governor. I know that being a candidate for the Senate during my last 15 months as governor would be a distraction from the task at hand. And, while I have loved being a mayor and a governor, I don’t feel the same call to run for Senate at this point. At the end of my term, I will have been in public office for 15 years. I feel like I can be most helpful in my next service as a private citizen.”
The announcement left some surprised and stunned. But I thought Mr. Haslam had already tipped his hand about a Senate race. That’s when his office announced the day before, that Haslam and other state officials will spend all next week on a trade mission to Asia. That’s very important work for governors and even for U.S. Senators. But if you are running for a seat in that body, does it make sense to spend some of the first days of your campaign thousands of miles away from Tennessee and its voters?
I think not.
I am also sure the Governor was quite aware of the attack campaigns already launched against him by Breitbart media and the groups like the Club for Growth. It indicated a very rough, potentially nasty primary campaign. Bill Haslam has been blessed in his political career to not ever have a race like that. It is interesting to note that the Governor believes his best service to Tennessee after leaving office in 2019 is as a private citizen, he later told reporters he would not rule out running for the Senate in 2020 if Senator Lama Alexander decides to retire (the Senator says he is currently undecided about what to do).
So maybe it was wrong time, wrong seat for Bill Haslam in 2018. But 2020 is another day?
BLACKBURN JUMPS IN
Within an hour or so after Governor Haslam issued his decision, Congressman Marsha Blackburn, always considered the most likely candidate to enter the Senate contest, did so. She jumped in with gusto and her all “card carrying” conservative credentials.
Her two-minute plus YouTube announcement video was both an attack on party’s own majority in the Senate and a pledge of support for President Donald Trump. As I told you previously she would, Blackburn touted her conservative credentials as well as her work on behalf of conservative causes, both in Washington and here in Nashville, where she was a leader in stopping an income tax for Tennessee a few years ago.
Her opening campaign salvo was full of political red meat for her base. View it by clicking here.
One other word of note about the video, and Blackburn’s campaign logo, it doesn’t say “Republican for the U.S. Senate.” It says “Conservative for the U.S. Senate” in perhaps yet another sign of the budding civil war going on nationally inside the GOP, and now here in Tennessee.
The days’ developments left Blackburn as the clear and strong favorite in the Senate race, both in the August GOP primary and the general election in the fall of 2018. GOP activist and former Americans for Prosperity leader in Tennessee, Andy Ogles, remains Blackburn’s major challenger. If he stays in the race and Nashville businessman Lee Beaman can come through on his promise to raise $4 million in PAC money to support him, Ogles could present some challenge, but Blackburn is now considered too strong to beat right now.
For the establishment GOP, the more moderate conservative wing of the Tennessee Republican Party, they’ve never liked Congressman Blackburn. However, they may be forced to live with her as the state’s new junior Senator. With Haslam declining to run, the moderates have no one to come off their political bench (or from another prominent office) to win. It is a sign of the rising power and prominence within the state GOP of the doughnut counties around Nashville who now are challenging for leadership and power the historically Republican base in the state which has been in East Tennessee since Civil War times.
THE DEMOCRATS
The Democrats see an opportunity in the Senate race.
They already have a candidate in the field. He is Iraq War veteran and Nashville lawyer James Mackler. He has impressed party leaders and raised a little money. But there are others eyeing the Senate primary including Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke and Nashville State Senator Jeff Yarbro. Any Democrat running would start as a clear underdog.
THE DOWN TICKET IMPACT
The Senate race developments, particularly the Blackburn Senate candidacy has convinced State Senator Mark Green to run for the Congressman’s House seat. It’s been an eventful last year for Green. He was once a Republican candidate for Governor, then dropped out to be President Trump’s nominee to serve as Army Secretary. That did not out pan out. He withdrew from the appointment amid criticism of some of his public comments regarding lesbians, gays and Muslims.
For a while, Green said he would not seek any office in 2018. But then came the Corker retirement and a conversation with Steve Bannon about the Senate race. When Blackburn jumped in instead, Green decided to seek her current job where he is a likely favorite to win.
INSIDE POLITICS WEIGHS IN
Clearly, critical developments occurred this week in the race to succeed Tennessee U.S. Senator Bob Corker.
Our guests on INSIDE POLITICS to analyze the contest are Republican strategist Debra Maggart and Democrat Carol Andrews,
We will also spend some time analyzing the 2018 governor’s race (which does not have an incumbent either).
The 2018 elections in Tennessee will be a year of changing faces and changing places for our elected officials and it could be very historic.
There is perhaps the greatest chance to date of a woman winning a statewide contest to be the Governor of Tennessee and/or one of our Senators.
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ONE MORE TIME
With the effort to “repeal and replace” Obamacare likely dead for the rest of 2017 and maybe until after the November 2018 mid-term congressional elections, Tennessee Senator Lamar Alexander is renewing his efforts with Washington State Democratic Senator Patty Murray to craft bi-partisan legislation that would stabilize Obamacare’s individual insurance markets for the next two years.
Reports THE TENNESSEAN:
“Sens. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., said that he and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., are looking to have bill language that they can agree upon ready by Monday (of this past week) and then finish their talks with other senators from both parties next week.
By the end of next week, they want to have the proposal in the hands of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY.
“What we’re trying to do is not just see whether Sen. Murray and I can agree, but whether the two of us can find a significant number of Democrats and Republicans who can agree on a limited, bipartisan proposal that could actually pass,” said Alexander, chairman of the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee.
Murray, the committee’s top Democrat, also is optimistic about the discussions.
“After all the partisanship we’ve seen from Republicans on health care, I’m glad we’ve been able to restart our conversations about ways to actually make health care work better for families — beginning with steps to help lower premiums — and I’m hopeful we can reach a final agreement soon,” she said.”
Senator Alexander says chaos will ensue if the insurance markets are not stabilized by Congress acting. But it is a long road ahead and not much time to pass anything. It is also possible any bill up for consideration could take 60 votes in the Senate to pass, and it might face a presidential veto. President Trump has earlier threatened to cut off or impound the federal subsidies that help make the insurance markets function. That effort could be subject to a legal challenge but that likely would only complicate and elongate a very difficult situation.
NASHVILLE MOVES TO BE SOCCER CITY
A few months back when a local group said they planned to bid on an MLS major league soccer franchise for Nashville, not many thought that likely to be successful. But some rival cities fell by the wayside and Nashville has impressed league officials with the large crowds attracted to Nissan Stadium for other recent high profile professional soccer games.
Nothing is a sure thing, but clearly the biggest challenge still facing Nashville to obtain a pro soccer franchise is a stadium to play its games. This week, working with the team owners, Mayor Megan Barry unveiled plans and financing for a $250 million facility to be built at the Tennessee State Fairgrounds. The stadium with a capacity of 27,500 would be a public private partnership between the city and the developers, with an emphasis on private says Mayor Barry.
In fact she maintains the proposal now before the Metro Council for review and approval would require a full 90 percent of the proposed stadium cost to be funded by the MLS ownership group and from revenues generated at the stadium. In other words, no new taxes and any cost overruns are to be covered by the owners. Metro’s contribution ($25 million) would be part of the bond issue and would go towards necessary infrastructure improvements.
Says a news release from the Mayor’s office with more details:
“An economic impact study conducted by the University of Tennessee for the ownership group shows the team and stadium will create 1,886 new jobs and $77.7 million in new personal income. Stadium construction and development would create 3,572 jobs and $139.2 million in new income.
Barry added the stadium plan preserves all existing uses of the fairgrounds while bringing significant private and public investment to the site. Along with the $25 million in infrastructure funds to support the public spaces associated with the stadium, Mayor Barry is committed to fully funding the Fairgrounds Master Plan with up to $25 million to improve the fairgrounds property and rebuild aging expo and fair facilities in addition to the $12 million already approved by the Mayor and Metro Council in FY16-17.
“This proposal honors all existing uses of the fairgrounds, and will pave the way for those groups and activities to grow and thrive,” Barry said. “John Ingram and his fellow investors are bringing significant private investment to the site. Overall, this plan will improve the fairgrounds and benefit future generations to come.”
But the plan also contained an unexpected detail, a lease of an additional 10 acres of “underutilized” Fairgrounds property so the soccer ownership group can develop a mixed-use, mixed income development which will include affordable and workforce housing.
It is clear this will raise additional questions and concerns from councilmembers as well as how all this will mesh with the existing uses and major buildings on the Fairgrounds property, which is an area jealously guarded by some local civic activist groups.
Because the choice for expansion MLS franchises is due to be decided and announced before the end of the year, the timetable for action is quite compact. The Metro Fair Board is expected to begin consideration of its part of the project (ground lease and bond issue) this month while the Metro Council will take up consideration and approval of the bonds at its October 17 meeting. By the way, the project only moves forward if Nashville is awarded the MLS franchise.
REPEATING ITSELF
Two Sundays ago, it was a small Baptist Church in Nashville in the Antioch community.
Last Sunday it was a huge country music festival and concert on The Strip in Las Vegas.
What they have in common is being two of the most recent sites of mass shootings in our nation.
I have seen reports that for the several years we have been averaging an incident like this almost every day.
These incidents are heart-wrenching and senseless. I think President Trump has it right when he says the gunman in Vegas was “pure evil.” I suspect that may be correct about the gunman in Antioch too.
But as to what should be done to try and keep these massacres from happening again, there is still no consensus.
Instead the conversation, especially on-line and on social media, quickly degenerates into “we have to do something” versus “it’s too early to discuss that” and “there is no new law that can stop what happened.” Others ask: “Isn’t this terrorism?’ “Or “how could there not be other people involved?’ There is even disagreement about which tragedy is the largest in U.S. history.
We can’t even start a conversation, because we don’t even agree on where to start the dialogue or even a definition of terms that might be needed. We adopt the talking points disseminated in our own “media bubble” and expect everybody else to agree with us or forget any dialogue.
But then in the middle of this week, something different happened. Democrats in Congress, joined by some Republicans (even House Speaker Paul Ryan) thought it might be worth debating one thing. That would be regulating the "bump stocks”, used by the Vegas Massacre shooter. It allowed him to turn a semi-automatic weapon into something much, more deadly, an automatic weapon capable of firing many more bullets per second (some automatic weapons are already illegal.)
The Trump White House said it wanted to be part of the discussion and even the National Rifle Association said it was open a review of the issue by federal officials (but it is unclear if that meant legislation or regulatory action). By the way, the Obama administration in 2010 decided not to regulate this type of equipment.
Some of other Republicans and Second Amendment advocates remain resistant to any possible change like this so don’t bet much money on anything happening.
And that means we just wait for the next mass shooting. And if recent history is correct, that won’t be long in happening.
Unfortunately, we are also learning that deliberately false information was disseminated on line in the hours following the Las Vegas tragedy, meaning the angst and anger was also being spun by imposters, bots, maybe even Russians or others overseas?
Have we not learned anything from the 2016 election? When will we reach a consensus to even deal with that?
Sigh.
CORKER NOW SPEAKING MORE FREELY
Senator Bob Corker says he plans to spend his last months in Washington, doing his job and feeling a bit more uninhibited in speaking out when he sees fit. He did that twice this week. One was perhaps in a strange context although not in Trump World. In the other matter, he could dynamite one of the remaining hopes for a legislative win for Republicans this year.
A story broke that Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had to be talked out of quitting by Vice President Mike Pence because of the Secretary being constantly being overruled by President Trump. The story even said Tillerson called the President” a moron” at one point.
Tillerson did something very rare for him. He called a news conference to deny he’s ever considered resigning. But the Secretary repeatedly declined to deny he called the President a “moron,” saying he does not get into matters like that.
With controversy continuing to swirl around Tillerson and his future, Senator Corker came to his aid and made a very interesting claim about forces in the White House seeking to move the country into “chaos,” and who was (and perhaps by inference) who wasn’t trying to stop it. If you read this WASHINGTON POST article, it does not appear the President is on the side of the good guys.
Perhaps warming up even more to this “speaking more candidly” role, Senator Corker indicated late in the week that he might oppose the Republican’s tax cut/ tax reform legislation, which is the party’s last, best hope for any major legislative achievement in 2017. Read this report from NPR.
Never a dull moment in Washington, especially in the Age of Trump.
