Tricky forecast for Nicholas the next several days

Posted at 3:17 PM, Sep 14, 2021
and last updated 2021-09-14 16:17:10-04

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — September is statistically the most active month of hurricane season, and so far, it’s living up to that in the tropics.

While there are three areas we are monitoring (Nicholas in the Gulf of Mexico, an area in the Caribbean near Turks and Caicos, and Invest 95L off the coast of Africa) Nicholas is the storm we are monitoring closely for impacts this week.


Nicholas is hugging the Texas coast right now and will continue to slowly move north-northeast this week. As the storm continues that path it will help pump moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into the Mid-South aiding in increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms, with Wednesday and Thursday being the days with the best chance for rain.

With all that said, this is a tricky storm to forecast. High pressure over the Carolinas is helping to slow the storm's movement. Also, a cold front currently stretching from the Midwest through the Great Plains will play a factor into the path the storm eventually takes.

Over the next couple of days, high pressure will begin to weaken its grip allowing the cold front to slowly slide through the region. Depending on the placement Wednesday and Thursday will determine how far the circulation of Nicholas will move, which plays a factor in how much rain we will see. If the track of the low stays further south, then the best chances for rain will be along and south of Interstate 40. If the front moves slow and allows the circulation to move further north then widespread rain is likely over the Mid-South.

Make sure you’ve downloaded the free Storm Shield App so you can keep up with rain chances over the next several days.