NASHVILLE, Tenn. (WTVF) — As Tennessee voters prepare to head to the polls Thursday, competing campaign polls are offering very different pictures of the Republican primary for governor.
Congressman John Rose's campaign has pointed to polling suggesting the race with U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn is tightening significantly, while Blackburn's campaign has released its own internal polling showing her maintaining a substantial lead.
The dueling polls raise a question for voters: Which survey provides the most accurate picture of the race?
Marc Schwerdt, a political science professor at Lipscomb University, said it is difficult to draw firm conclusions without additional information about how the polls were conducted. "Looking at all of these, how well do they reflect the actual turnout?" Schwerdt asked.
He cautioned against reading too much into any single poll. "We might want to lower our expectations of just how much we're learning from this," Schwerdt said.
One distinction Schwerdt noted involved the information released alongside the polling results. Blackburn's internal poll included demographic data about the respondents, while the poll favored by Rose did not provide that information. "This is a boost of confidence for the Blackburn campaign that they shared this part of it," Schwerdt said.
While the polls differ on the overall state of the race, Schwerdt said they appear to point toward some similar trends.
One of those trends involves Republican candidate Monty Fritts of Kingston. According to Schwerdt, both polls suggest Fritts has gained support in recent months despite running a campaign with significantly fewer resources than his better-known opponents. "Yeah, it seems like he's got something that appeals to a particular group within the population," Schwerdt said. "More of an on the ground, making those local connections, and sort of, I think attracting the disaffected within the Republican party."
The polls also indicate Rose has picked up support, while Blackburn's once-substantial lead has narrowed compared to earlier polling.
Whether those changes are enough to fundamentally alter the outcome of the race remains unclear. "Is it enough to actually close that large of a gap? That's still up for debate," Schwerdt said. "That's what they're trying to settle with these two polls."
You can read through both polls from each campaign here.
Ultimately, Schwerdt said the only poll that will definitively answer the question comes when voters cast their ballots.
On the Democratic side of the aisle, recent polling shows Shelby County Public Defender Jerri Green holding a sizable lead.
Tennessee voters will decide the Republican gubernatorial primary on Election Day Thursday.
Do you have more information about this story? You can email me at Chris.Davis@NewsChannel5.com.
Kelsey Gibbs brings us a powerful story of humanity, compassion, and love in action while showing us the hard and lifesaving work our officers do daily. Nashville is lucky to have people like Lt. Hotz wearing the badge.
- Carrie Sharp
